Early warning report on steel raw material price trends

2018-09-04 15:55

The performance of domestic main raw materials this week was mixed. Among them, imported ore prices first fell and then rose, steel billet prices rose slightly, domestic ore prices were mainly stable, coke prices remained stable, and scrap steel prices were mixed. Specifically, by type:

In terms of steel billets: domestic steel billet prices rose slightly this week. As of press time, the price of Tangshan common billet including tax was reported at 3,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous month. In terms of inventory, as of 8 a.m. on June 30, Xiangyu Zhengfeng warehouse had 127,700 tons of steel billet inventory, Haiyi Hongrun warehouse had 150,700 tons of steel billet inventory, Wuchan Zhenxiang had 179,400 tons of steel billet inventory, and Zhongtuo Lizhaozhuang had 4,000 tons of steel billet inventory. , the steel billet inventory in the four warehouses totaled 461,800 tons, an increase of 49,300 tons from the previous month. Market: Recently, the environmental protection in Tangshan area has become stricter. Some rolling mills have stopped production, and the demand for billet procurement has decreased. At the end of the month, some delivery resources have been put into storage, and the main warehouse inventory has increased. However, the snail contract has been relatively volatile, and the market confidence is acceptable. Manufacturers quoted prices. A slight rise. Considering that steel billet inventories have increased slightly, and there will be replenishment after the production restriction, it is expected that the domestic steel billet market will mainly fluctuate and adjust next week

Ion ore: The imported ore market first declined and then rose this week. As of June 30, the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port was 880 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous month. In terms of ports, the ore inventory at major ports was 127.44 million tons, a decrease of 510,000 tons from the previous month. This week, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.09%, an increase of 1% from the previous month; the profitability of steel companies was 64.07%, an increase of 3.9% from the previous month. The output of molten iron has increased month-on-month, but steel companies are still cautious in purchasing, mainly replenishing stocks for immediate needs, and the main purchasing varieties are PB powder, Balmix, Newman powder, mainstream lump ore, etc. Traders quoted more prices and followed the market trend, and the market trading sentiment was average. However, the ore contract continued to rise, and the overall market confidence was acceptable. Considering that terminal demand is in the off-season, but molten iron production is increasing, it is expected that the imported ore market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate next week.

Coking coal: The domestic coking coal market is operating stably to weak this week. As the increase in downstream coke is hindered, market sentiment is lower. Steel and coking companies are replenishing stocks as needed, and coking companies in some regions are increasing production restrictions due to profit constraints, which has a negative impact on coking coal prices. The rise caused suppression, and shipments from coal mines in the production areas slowed down. Prices in areas with rapid increases in the early stage fell by 50-100 yuan/ton. Considering that the pressure on coal mine inventories is not great for the time being, but rigid demand has weakened, it is expected that the domestic coking coal market will remain weak next week. Main coking coal S0.5G7 in Changzhi area of Shanxi Province is now quoted at 1,750 yuan/ton; Liulin main coking coal S0.7, G85 is quoted at 1,700 yuan/ton, S1.3, G75 is quoted at 1,590 yuan/ton. Tangshan main coking coal S0.8-0.9, G>85, Y17-23 quoted 1735 yuan/ton; Handan main coking coal S<0.6, G75-85 quoted 1800 yuan/ton. Inner Mongolia Wuhai 1/3 coking coal A≤10.5, S≤1.0, V≤32, G≥80, Y17 quoted 1,450 yuan/ton.

Coke: The domestic coke market has been operating steadily this week. As some raw coal prices have risen and fallen, the market's bullish enthusiasm has cooled down. The first round of increases of 50-60 yuan/ton by coke companies before the holiday has not yet been implemented. At present, the profits of steel mills are still good, the production enthusiasm is good, the coke inventory in the factory remains at a reasonable level, and the arrival of goods is normal. The profits of coke enterprises are insufficient, environmental protection and production restrictions have become stricter in some regions, the overall supply has tightened, and the market as a whole is in a wait-and-see state. Considering that the contradiction between coke supply and demand is not obvious, it is expected that the domestic coke market will continue to operate smoothly next week. The current ex-factory quotation of quasi-first-grade coke in East China is 1,800-1,900 yuan/ton, including tax; the ex-factory quotation of quasi-first-grade coke in North China, including tax, is 1,800-1,900 yuan/ton; the ex-factory quotation of quasi-first-grade coke in Shanxi, including tax, is 1,700-1,800 yuan/ton. tons; the ex-factory price of quasi-first-grade coke in Northeast China is 1,700-1,800 yuan/ton including tax.

Scrap steel: Domestic scrap steel prices rose and fell in various regions this week. At the beginning of the week, steel prices weakened and fell back. Steel mills took the opportunity to lower prices. Later, finished product prices stopped falling and rose again. Steel companies in some regions once again pulled up to attract goods. Among them, the leading steel companies in East China remained stable, while some short-process steel companies fell first and then rose, with an amplitude of 20-40 yuan/ton. The overall operation in North China is strong, the scrap inventory in steel companies is low, and the scrap price is strong and has increased by 20-50 yuan/ton. Considering that the production enthusiasm of steel mills is relatively good, but the demand for finished products is weakening, it is expected that the scrap steel market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate next week. The current quotation for heavy waste (﹥6mm) in East China is 2,450-2,600 yuan/ton without tax; the quotation for heavy waste (﹥6mm) in central China is 2,450-2,550 yuan/ton without tax; the quotation for heavy waste (﹥6mm) in North China is not including tax. The quoted price is 2,500-2,650 yuan/ton; the quoted price for heavy waste (﹥6mm) in South China is 2,450-2,550 yuan/ton excluding tax; the quoted price for northeastern region's heavy waste (﹥6mm) is 2,400-2,600 yuan/ton excluding tax.